by Vladimir Socor, The Jamestown Foundation

Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin is pulling back from the bilateral, non-transparent negotiations with the Kremlin, on which he had embarked in September 2006. Concessions offered by Chisinau incrementally in the negotiating rounds with Russian Security Council Deputy Secretary Yuri Zubakov and, periodically, with President Vladimir Putin during 13 months, did not bring a settlement of the Transnistria conflict any closer. Voronin still seemed prey to illusions in that regard as late as July-August (see EDM, July 27, August 1); but no longer, as he now indicates in a carefully prepared interview (Komsomolskaya Pravda v Moldove, October 4). Read full article

by Vladimir Socor, The Jamestown Foundation

With Russian troops on their way out from two bases in Georgia, the international politics of CFE Treaty ratification focuses increasingly on Moldova. The OSCE’s Permanent Council-Forum for Security Cooperation special joint meeting on May 23, with Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov’s participation, reflected this development. As Russian officials from President Vladimir Putin on down threaten to scuttle the treaty unless Western countries ratify it, Moldova may come under growing pressures from now on.

Read full article

Mart Laar

The west seems to lack up-to-date knowledge about Moldova. Can Europe's poorest country ever achieve real independence from Russia?

Communism's fall gave the nations of the former Soviet bloc a chance to turn towards democracy, a market economy, and the rule of law. Some countries cut ties decisively with the communist past; others were less successful, a few failed catastrophically.

Read full article

Andras Racz, Hungarian Institute of International Affairs: The second congress of the United Democratic Forces (UDF) held on 26-27th May in Minsk replaced Alexander Milinkevich, the former jointly supported presidential candidate. Leadership of the UDF will be exercised by a Political Council directed by a Praesidium of four co-presidents. The new strategy of the UDF is in favor of starting negotiations with the Lukashenko-regime. Milinkevich quit the group and keeps on pursuing his own opposition policies, based on a bottom-up approach, mass support and street demonstrations. Read full article

Michael Emerson, Gergana Noutcheva, Nicu Popescu, CEPS: Conceived in 2003 and 2004, the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) has now had two years of operational experience. This initial experience has seen a sorting out of the partner states, with Action Plans drawn up for five Eastern and seven Southern partner states. We would distinguish among these 12 states between the ‘willing’ and the ‘passive’; and among the other partner states without Action Plans between the ‘reluctant’ and the ‘excluded’. These groupings should be the basis for stronger differentiation in the policy packages offered by the EU. In general the political context now calls for a strong reinforcement of the ENP, since the benign situation of 2004 has given way now to a more menacing one, given threats to European values bearing down on the EU from all sides. The EU institutions recognise these needs in principle, and last December the Commission advanced many valuable proposals. ‘ENP plus’ is a term being used by the current German Presidency, without this yet being defined in a public document in operational detail. Therefore we suggest a 15-point programme for achieving a qualitative upgrading of the ENP, to give it strategic leverage, rather than allowing it to be seen as a poor cousin of the enlargement process. Read full article

Edward Lucas
Economist.com

A glimpse inside Transdniestria

EMBARRASSINGLY sleazy, expensive and indefensible—but ours, and we are bloody well going to hang on to it. That was West Berlin during the cold war, seen through NATO eyes. And it may also explain why Russia has supported Transdniestria, a narrow strip of land on the eastern bank of the Dniestr river that has broken away from Moldova, the poorest and most demoralised country in Europe. Read full article