04 Jun 2007
Andras Racz, Hungarian Institute of International Affairs: The second congress of the United Democratic Forces (UDF) held on 26-27th May in Minsk replaced Alexander Milinkevich, the former jointly supported presidential candidate. Leadership of the UDF will be exercised by a Political Council directed by a Praesidium of four co-presidents. The new strategy of the UDF is in favor of starting negotiations with the Lukashenko-regime. Milinkevich quit the group and keeps on pursuing his own opposition policies, based on a bottom-up approach, mass support and street demonstrations. Read full article
10 May 2007
Michael Emerson, Gergana Noutcheva, Nicu Popescu, CEPS: Conceived in 2003 and 2004, the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) has now had two years of operational experience. This initial experience has seen a sorting out of the partner states, with Action Plans drawn up for five Eastern and seven Southern partner states. We would distinguish among these 12 states between the ‘willing’ and the ‘passive’; and among the other partner states without Action Plans between the ‘reluctant’ and the ‘excluded’. These groupings should be the basis for stronger differentiation in the policy packages offered by the EU. In general the political context now calls for a strong reinforcement of the ENP, since the benign situation of 2004 has given way now to a more menacing one, given threats to European values bearing down on the EU from all sides. The EU institutions recognise these needs in principle, and last December the Commission advanced many valuable proposals. ‘ENP plus’ is a term being used by the current German Presidency, without this yet being defined in a public document in operational detail. Therefore we suggest a 15-point programme for achieving a qualitative upgrading of the ENP, to give it strategic leverage, rather than allowing it to be seen as a poor cousin of the enlargement process. Read full article
21 Oct 2005
Mykola Riabchuk: Virtually all experts agree today that even the most restrictive visa policies contribute little to the EU's internal security. It is not the notorious "Polish plumber" or Ukrainian gastarbeiters who contribute to European economic stagnation, and it is certainly not they who should be blamed for the growth of ethnic violence and religious intolerance (let alone terrorism) in Europe. Read full article
19 Sep 2005
Elena Gnedina: This paper studies the empirical puzzle as to why, under similar circumstances, EU policies aimed at democratization have been relatively successful in Ukraine and failed in Belarus. The divergent outcomes of the EU policies are best explained by the Europeanization theories, stating that the degree of “misfit” between the EU and target state, EU policies toward this state, domestic structures of the state and external actors’ policies largely determine the effectiveness of the EU policies. This paper undertakes a qualitative comparative analysis of the cases of Ukraine and Belarus, testing the aforementioned factors for each case, comparing the main findings and drawing conclusions on what factors have been decisive for the divergent outcomes of the EU policies in these cases. The analysis shows that different domestic structures, favorable in Ukraine and unfavorable in Belarus, were responsible for Ukraine adoption of some democratic and market reforms under the EU pressure and for Belarus’ non-compliance with the EU norms. In contrast, neither a degree of incompatibility between the EU and Ukraine and Belarus, nor the EU policies, nor policies of external actors significantly affected the outcome. Read full article
04 May 2005
Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels: This issue of the CEPS Neighbourhood Watch leads with a commentary on post-election politics in Moldova by Nicu Popescu. It then offers the conclusions of the report by the International Commission on the Balkans published in April 2005. It includes also a recently delivered speech in Brussels by the Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine Oleg Rybachuk. Finally, Marius Vahl provides his thoughts on the EU and Black Sea regional cooperation. Read full article
Grzegorz Gromadzki, Oleksandr Sushko, Kataryna Wolczuk, Roman Wolczuk: There are a number of reasons why these elections are crucial both for Ukraine and for EU-Ukraine relations. First, the forthcoming presidential elections represent perhaps the greatest challenge for Ukrainian democracy so far. This is because they are taking place in the context of an ongoing deterioration of democratic standards in Ukraine. The results of these presidential elections are crucial in that there is reason to suppose that the victory of one of the main candidates, Viktor Yushchenko would lead to a reversal of this deterioration while the victory of the other, Viktor Yanukhovych, may result in its further intensification. Secondly, the divergent political visions of Ukraine’s future adopted by the two main contenders have significant and profound implications both for Ukraine as a nation-state and its relationship with the EU: Mr Yanukovych is standing on a platform of continuity, including the prevailing style of governance; Mr Yushchenko stands for change and an intensification of Ukraine’s efforts to integrate with the EU. Thirdly, the very fact that there exists a real choice for electors between two credible contenders, is a rarity in member states of the CIS, countries in which the propensity for incumbents to prolong their presidency or to designate a successor, is wide-spread. In contrast to elections in some of the CIS states in which the victor is known well in advance, it still remains to be seen who will be the eventual winner of the Ukrainian presidential elections. Read full article
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